Well-Worn-Slaw

0x4f29e103339919c4baaea2a60195cf1c8bb27a7e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Well-Worn-Slaw: +$18K on 93 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 65% (95% range 54%–74%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$18K
return +5.5%
Settled bets
93
$329K staked
Won
64.5%
95% range 54%–74%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 82 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
−$30K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$27K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$21K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 24 BUY Houston Astros @ 83¢
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners $1.1K
Sep 24 BUY New York Mets @ 41¢
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) $4.9K
Sep 24 BUY Over @ 45¢
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 $5.0K
Sep 24 BUY Over @ 55¢
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5
New York Mets vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 $5.0K
Sep 23 BUY Kansas City Royals @ 52¢
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals $3.2K
Sep 23 SELL Toronto Blue Jays @ 23¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles $1.2K
Sep 23 BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 77¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles $2.6K
Sep 23 BUY Minnesota Twins @ 91¢
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants $1.8K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed