Stable-Prompt

0x4d514c19b3dd6284c11a92dd6b1d151fb4c54946

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Stable-Prompt: +$312 on 20 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 84%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$312
return +0.2%
Settled bets
20
$159K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 84%–100%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 20 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$102
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$101
Sep 23 – Oct 11
+$109
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY NAVI Junior @ 99.9¢
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs NAVI Junior (+1.5)
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs NAVI Junior (+1.5) $5.1K
Oct 1 BUY Yes @ 99.84¢
Azerbaijan vs. Liechtenstein: Neither team to score first?
Azerbaijan vs. Liechtenstein: Neither team to score first? $1.8K
Sep 30 BUY UCAM Esports Club @ 99.9¢
LoL: eSuba vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage
LoL: eSuba vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage $2.0K
Sep 24 BUY Kawaii Kiwis @ 99.02¢
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs
LoL: Guinea Pink vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs $9.9K
Sep 22 BUY Barça eSports @ 99.9¢
LoL: Barça eSports vs Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports - Game 2 Winner
LoL: Barça eSports vs Gamespace Mediterranean College Esports - Game 2 Winner $12K
Sep 21 BUY G2 Ares @ 99.88¢
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage $4.0K
Sep 18 BUY UPGRADE @ 99¢
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs UPGRADE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs UPGRADE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage $1.6K
Sep 15 BUY Valencia CF @ 99.9¢
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5)
Spread: Deportivo Alavés (-1.5) $3.6K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed