Amusing-Forever

0x4c7301f230b21b1090a090d2c5cdc3deff42c202

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Amusing-Forever: −$1.1K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 16%–75%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$1.1K
return −28.0%
Settled bets
7
$4.1K staked
Won
42.9%
95% range 16%–75%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$1.3K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$409
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$296
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 30 SELL No @ 83¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-30?
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-30? $1.7K
Sep 28 BUY Over @ 97¢
Türkiye vs. Italy: O/U 4.5
Türkiye vs. Italy: O/U 4.5 $1.6K
Sep 19 SELL Over @ 88¢
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5
Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 $1.4K
Sep 8 BUY Over @ 68¢
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 $1.3K
Sep 5 BUY Over @ 96¢
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 2.5
Red Bull Bragantino vs. EC Bahia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 $1.2K
Sep 5 SELL No @ 76¢
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-05?
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-05? $1.7K
Sep 2 SELL No @ 59¢
Will FC Thun win on 2026-09-02?
Will FC Thun win on 2026-09-02? $1.1K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed