Perfumed-Praise-Retrospective
0x4a86dfe0f05e34b133b29b7626368e78912c501e
Perfumed-Praise-Retrospective: −$3.2K on 23 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 70% (95% range 49%–84%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$3.2K
return −3.9%
Settled bets
23
$82K staked
Won
69.6%
95% range 49%–84%
Mostly bets on
crypto
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$10K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$13K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 | BUY Up
@ 99¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | $4.2K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Up
@ 97¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET | $1.8K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Up
@ 86¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | $1.4K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Down
@ 69¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | $1.7K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Up
@ 80¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | $1.0K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Up
@ 97¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | $2.0K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Up
@ 96¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | $2.0K |
| Sep 25 | BUY Up
@ 97¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET |
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.