Unhealthy-Peertopeer

0x4a3f86ed9ce6b3dac5b66e2d5478a6bf38cc4333

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Unhealthy-Peertopeer: −$8.5K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 6%–51%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$8.5K
return −62.8%
Settled bets
10
$14K staked
Won
20.0%
95% range 6%–51%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$1.1K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$7.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 15 BUY Over @ 47¢
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 $1.2K
Sep 15 BUY Over @ 47¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 $1.2K
Sep 15 BUY Under @ 51¢
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 $1.5K
Sep 15 BUY St. Louis Cardinals @ 63¢
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants vs. St. Louis Cardinals $1.5K
Sep 12 BUY Under @ 52¢
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 $1.2K
Sep 12 BUY Under @ 50¢
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 $1.2K
Sep 12 BUY Under @ 51¢
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 $1.5K
Sep 11 BUY Over @ 52¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 $1.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed