Optimal-Miss
Skill vs luck
Optimal-Miss on Polymarket: 1 settled bet · won 100% (95% range 21%–100%) · profit +$569. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Optimal-Miss: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20. Data CC BY 4.0.
Optimal-Miss: +$569 on 1 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 21%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 3 – Oct 18
- +$569
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 77¢ | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Yes @ 77¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $1.5K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yes @ 68¢ | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? ↗ | $1.2K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.