Ugly-Crab
0x4980930da4ad1194d4f0fd5e29f17b70a42e5709
Ugly-Crab: +$15K on 26 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 42% (95% range 26%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$15K
return +30.6%
Settled bets
26
$48K staked
Won
42.3%
95% range 26%–61%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 14 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$11K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$2.2K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$1.3K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | SELL Team Vitality
@ 99.9¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $4.0K |
| Oct 7 | SELL LOUD
@ 99.9¢
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $10K |
| Oct 7 | BUY LOUD
@ 47¢
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Pcific Esports
@ 99.9¢
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - Monsters Reloaded Closed Qualifier Play-In |
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - Monsters Reloaded Closed Qualifier Play-In | $4.9K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Karmine Corp
@ 54¢
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D |
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D | $4.3K |
| Oct 3 | SELL FUT Esports
@ 47¢
Valorant: FUT Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A |
Valorant: FUT Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A | $4.7K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Karmine Corp
@ 34¢
Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Nongshim RedForce (+1.5) | $1.3K |
| Oct 2 | BUY FUT Esports
@ 49¢
Valorant: FUT Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A |
Valorant: FUT Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A | $4.9K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.