Reasonable-Allocation
0x48de48b1ee7db2de50d5a4eefe267c0d486295ba
Reasonable-Allocation: −$3.4K on 10 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 6%–51%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$3.4K
return −53.7%
Settled bets
10
$6.4K staked
Won
20.0%
95% range 6%–51%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$2
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.2K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$1.3K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | BUY Packers
@ 70¢
Falcons vs. Packers |
Falcons vs. Packers | $1.3K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Bayer 04 Leverkusen
@ 99.9¢
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) |
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5) | $1.6K |
| Sep 16 | SELL Oriol Roca Batalla
@ 99.9¢
Biella: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Stefano Napolitano |
Biella: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Stefano Napolitano | $1.8K |
| Sep 16 | BUY Oriol Roca Batalla
@ 57¢
Biella: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Stefano Napolitano |
Biella: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Stefano Napolitano | $1.0K |
| Sep 15 | SELL Laslo Djere
@ 64¢
Szczecin: Johan Nikles vs Laslo Djere |
Szczecin: Johan Nikles vs Laslo Djere | $1.0K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Jay Clarke
@ 61¢
Biella: Jay Clarke vs Jonas Forejtek |
Biella: Jay Clarke vs Jonas Forejtek | $1.1K |
| Sep 12 | BUY Frances Tiafoe
@ 49¢
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton |
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Ben Shelton | $1.1K |
| Sep 11 | SELL Jaume Munar
@ 99.9¢
Seville: Jaume Munar vs Raul Brancaccio |
Seville: Jaume Munar vs Raul Brancaccio | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.