Hilarious-Fishery
Skill vs luck
Hilarious-Fishery on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 50% (95% range 10%–91%) · profit +$74. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Hilarious-Fishery: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x47ae6d13566c3418c4795c98ced1f197575eee94. Data CC BY 4.0.
Hilarious-Fishery: +$74 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 1 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$16
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- +$90
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 96¢ | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Yes @ 96¢ | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Aug 30 | SELL No @ 99.2¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? ↗ | $2.0K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?