Clear-Bakery

0x479b2c38f24a6ce59df524b6e53a208e2510cdb1

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Clear-Bakery: +$490 on 12 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 25%–75%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$490
return +2.2%
Settled bets
12
$23K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 25%–75%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$2.6K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
−$2.1K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 8 BUY New York Yankees @ 31¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees $1.0K
Sep 30 BUY Dallas Wings @ 37¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Dallas Wings
Golden State Valkyries vs. Dallas Wings $2.0K
Sep 30 BUY Blackhawks @ 31¢
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights
Blackhawks vs. Golden Knights $1.0K
Sep 27 BUY Buccaneers @ 32¢
Vikings vs. Buccaneers
Vikings vs. Buccaneers $1.0K
Sep 24 BUY Chargers @ 25¢
Chargers vs. Bills
Chargers vs. Bills $2.6K
Sep 20 BUY Chargers @ 49¢
Raiders vs. Chargers
Raiders vs. Chargers $1.0K
Sep 19 BUY JD Gaming @ 47¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner $1.0K
Sep 17 BUY Top Esports @ 45¢
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Regional Finals Playoffs $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed