Close-Circadian
Skill vs luck
Close-Circadian on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 41%–93%) · profit +$3.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Close-Circadian: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x475d3363c8314c6a637dcb6633e7a418cbea7fb8. Data CC BY 4.0.
Close-Circadian: +$3.2K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 41%–93%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 6 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 17 – Oct 1
- +$1.5K
- Oct 1 – Oct 15
- −$1.6K
- Oct 15 – Oct 29
- +$3.4K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 | SELL Yes @ 11¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.6K |
| Oct 18 | SELL Yes
@ 98¢
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? |
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election? | $1.6K |
| Oct 16 | BUY Yes
@ 76¢
Will Mike O'Reilly win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election? |
Will Mike O'Reilly win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election? | $2.4K |
| Oct 16 | BUY No
@ 85¢
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%? |
Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%? | $1.1K |
| Oct 14 | BUY Yes
@ 71¢
Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election? |
Will Zac de Vries win the 2026 Saanich mayoral election? | $2.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Yes
@ 93¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Federal District? |
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Federal District? | $2.5K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Yes
@ 88¢
Will Roman Zarzycký be the next Mayor of Plzeň? |
Will Roman Zarzycký be the next Mayor of Plzeň? | $1.3K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 91¢
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election? |
Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election? | $2.6K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.