Happy-Default
0x46992d0e547e3822a9c28723f51bfa804ae4e03c
Happy-Default: −$53K on 115 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 65% (95% range 56%–73%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$53K
return −11.9%
Settled bets
115
$449K staked
Won
65.2%
95% range 56%–73%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 74 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$57K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$4.0K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? | $1.6K |
| Sep 11 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? | $1.5K |
| Sep 11 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 11? | $2.0K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11? | $2.8K |
| Sep 11 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11? |
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 11? | $2.9K |
| Sep 11 | BUY No
@ 98¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10? | $1.4K |
| Sep 10 | BUY No
@ 97¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on September 10? | $3.7K |
| Sep 10 | BUY Yes
@ 98¢
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? |
LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch? | $3.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.