Grumpy-Marshmallow
Skill vs luck
Grumpy-Marshmallow on Polymarket: 8 settled bets · won 88% (95% range 53%–98%) · profit +$9.7K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Grumpy-Marshmallow: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x443bcce588e26763987e9ae44b6b7845f09fe8bb. Data CC BY 4.0.
Grumpy-Marshmallow: +$9.7K on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 88% (95% range 53%–98%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$4.8K
- Sep 17 – Oct 1
- +$3.2K
- Oct 1 – Oct 15
- +$687
- Oct 15 – Oct 29
- +$1.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28 | BUY Heat @ 49¢ | Spread: Hawks (-2.5) ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 6 | BUY No
@ 77¢
Switzerland vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to Score |
Switzerland vs. North Macedonia: Both Teams to Score | $2.3K |
| Oct 3 | SELL Belarus
@ 99.9¢
Spread: Belarus (-2.5) |
Spread: Belarus (-2.5) | $2.9K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Over
@ 49¢
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 3.5 |
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Santos Laguna: O/U 3.5 | $1.5K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Club Santos Laguna
@ 41¢
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5) |
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5) | $1.1K |
All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.