Elaborate-Volcano
Skill vs luck
Elaborate-Volcano on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$89. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 3, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Elaborate-Volcano: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 3, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x42f84890324dbaca5525fd34fd9071db175ebff0. Data CC BY 4.0.
Elaborate-Volcano: +$89 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 19 – Nov 3
- +$89
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | BUY No @ 90¢ | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 28 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Auriense CA win on 2026-10-29? |
Will Auriense CA win on 2026-10-29? | $3.0K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No
@ 96¢
Will CD Cuarte win on 2026-10-27? |
Will CD Cuarte win on 2026-10-27? | $1.3K |
| Oct 27 | BUY No @ 86¢ | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? ↗ | $14K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.