Impolite-Graph-Custard
0x41cdf6d55d7aa18f6907321110b7b803c6741e8c
Impolite-Graph-Custard: +$47 on 16 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 69% (95% range 44%–86%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$47
return +0.2%
Settled bets
16
$24K staked
Won
68.8%
95% range 44%–86%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 11 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$387
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$433
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | SELL Spirit
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | $5.9K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 98¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Team Falcons
@ 99.9¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 83¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 98¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Sep 22 | BUY MOUZ
@ 99¢
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Hokori - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Hokori - Game 2 Winner | $2.2K |
| Sep 22 | BUY GamerLegion
@ 97¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner | $1.1K |
| Sep 22 | BUY Team Nemesis
@ 94¢
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.