Unsightly-Girlfriend

0x41b4cd880a61de2f5728594decf7f2cbfc2a10da

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Unsightly-Girlfriend: +$11K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 61% (95% range 39%–80%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$11K
return +15.6%
Settled bets
18
$69K staked
Won
61.1%
95% range 39%–80%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$9.2K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$247
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$1.8K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 24 BUY Falcons @ 31¢
Falcons vs. Packers
Falcons vs. Packers $1.9K
Sep 20 BUY Washington Nationals @ 46¢
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals $2.5K
Sep 19 BUY Chicago Cubs @ 46¢
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) $2.1K
Sep 19 BUY Chicago Cubs @ 57¢
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds $2.0K
Sep 17 BUY Houston Astros @ 58¢
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros $5.7K
Sep 16 BUY No @ 61¢
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-09-16?
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-09-16? $2.0K
Sep 16 BUY No @ 60¢
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-09-16?
Will Club Always Ready win on 2026-09-16? $1.9K
Sep 15 BUY Detroit Tigers @ 33¢
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) $2.5K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed