Thorough-Alcove

0x418df0c1c1350f72262a41b1a675b07f225a0595

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Thorough-Alcove: −$1.1K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 86% (95% range 49%–97%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$1.1K
return −3.5%
Settled bets
7
$31K staked
Won
85.7%
95% range 49%–97%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 7 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$107
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$3
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$1.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 1 BUY No @ 67¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? $1.3K
Sep 24 BUY T1 Academy @ 92¢
LoL: Fuego vs T1 Academy (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A
LoL: Fuego vs T1 Academy (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group A $1.8K
Sep 13 BUY Yes @ 99.9¢
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-09-12?
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-09-12? $2.5K
Sep 2 BUY Seattle Mariners @ 99.8¢
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox $2.0K
Aug 30 BUY Yes @ 99.7¢
Will CF América win on 2026-08-29?
Will CF América win on 2026-08-29? $10K
Aug 28 BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 99.9¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets $3.0K
Aug 23 BUY Yes @ 99.29¢
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-08-22?
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-08-22? $9.8K

All 7 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed