Taut-Person-Rocketship

0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Taut-Person-Rocketship: +$32K on 56 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 86% (95% range 74%–93%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$32K
return +14.7%
Settled bets
56
$215K staked
Won
85.7%
95% range 74%–93%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 56 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$38K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$15K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$8.0K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 8 BUY Over @ 63¢
CD Moquegua vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5
CD Moquegua vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 2.5 $4.1K
Oct 6 BUY Over @ 79¢
Switzerland vs. North Macedonia: 1st Half O/U 0.5
Switzerland vs. North Macedonia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 $1.1K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 78¢
Will Nantong Zhiyun win on 2026-10-06?
Will Nantong Zhiyun win on 2026-10-06? $2.4K
Oct 6 BUY No @ 92¢
Exact Score: Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 1 Ningbo Professional FC?
Exact Score: Nantong Zhiyun 0 - 1 Ningbo Professional FC? $2.7K
Oct 6 BUY Over @ 68¢
Nantong Zhiyun vs. Ningbo Professional FC: O/U 0.5
Nantong Zhiyun vs. Ningbo Professional FC: O/U 0.5 $1.0K
Oct 5 BUY Over @ 77¢
France vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5
France vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 $3.7K
Oct 1 BUY Over @ 55¢
Argentina vs. Bolivia: O/U 3.5
Argentina vs. Bolivia: O/U 3.5 $9.6K
Sep 30 BUY Yes @ 93¢
Will Miami FC win on 2026-09-30?
Will Miami FC win on 2026-09-30? $2.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed