Enraged-Due

0x3f985e3a68f88e6ed8da1a22e1a5eda81c8e0aa1

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Enraged-Due: −$21K on 160 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 31%–46%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$21K
return −3.6%
Settled bets
160
$594K staked
Won
38.1%
95% range 31%–46%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 100 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$27K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
−$117K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$69K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 7 BUY Marat Sharipov @ 46¢
Wuning 3: Omar Jasika vs Marat Sharipov
Wuning 3: Omar Jasika vs Marat Sharipov $1.9K
Oct 6 BUY Jaime Faria @ 37¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Jaime Faria
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Jaime Faria $2.9K
Oct 6 BUY Jay Clarke @ 33¢
Palermo: Jay Clarke vs Gabriele Piraino
Palermo: Jay Clarke vs Gabriele Piraino $3.9K
Oct 6 BUY Yes @ 30¢
Will Croatia vs. Spain end in a draw?
Will Croatia vs. Spain end in a draw? $3.1K
Oct 6 SELL Joel Schwaerzler @ 99.9¢
Villena: Felix Balshaw vs Joel Schwaerzler
Villena: Felix Balshaw vs Joel Schwaerzler $25K
Oct 6 BUY Alex de Minaur @ 37¢
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur
China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur $7.5K
Oct 5 BUY Kyrian Jacquet @ 57¢
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Kyrian Jacquet vs Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Kyrian Jacquet vs Rei Sakamoto $2.8K
Oct 5 BUY Sweden @ 27¢
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) $2.3K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed