Sophisticated-Handicap
0x3e24e5e90dd24fc0c033f8a7ae742a8e59b34fab
Sophisticated-Handicap: −$17K on 18 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 16%–56%). Skill or luck: worse than the odds.
Profit
−$17K
return −48.0%
Settled bets
18
$35K staked
Won
33.3%
95% range 16%–56%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Worse than the odds. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 18 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$11K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$5.7K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$396
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY 100 Thieves
@ 78¢
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner | $1.6K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Spirit
@ 64¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY FURIA
@ 69¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.7K |
| Oct 4 | BUY BetBoom Team
@ 62¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 - Map 2 Winner |
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 - Map 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Team Liquid
@ 59¢
Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C |
Valorant: TYLOO vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C | $1.1K |
| Sep 19 | BUY Movistar KOI
@ 78¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner | $6.7K |
| Sep 18 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 41¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner | $1.9K |
| Sep 13 | BUY Hanwha Life Esports
@ 53¢
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 Winner | $1.1K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.