Harmless-Xylophone
Skill vs luck
Harmless-Xylophone on Polymarket: 13 settled bets · won 62% (95% range 36%–82%) · profit −$9.6K. Skill vs luck: can't be told from luck. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Harmless-Xylophone: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3cf6af76c4869d2ace41fe5263cd8057c5ec0cbd. Data CC BY 4.0.
Harmless-Xylophone: −$9.6K on 13 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 62% (95% range 36%–82%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 12 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- −$2.6K
- Sep 18 – Oct 3
- +$3.4K
- Oct 3 – Oct 17
- −$6.4K
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- −$4.0K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | BUY Lakers @ 49¢ | Spread: Lakers (-3.5) ↗ | $6.7K |
| Oct 23 | SELL Over
@ 52¢
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5 |
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Over
@ 52¢
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5 |
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5 | $2.0K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Timberwolves
@ 51¢
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) |
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) | $2.7K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Bucks
@ 53¢
Spread: Bulls (-1.5) |
Spread: Bulls (-1.5) | $3.3K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Grizzlies @ 99.8¢ | Jazz vs. Grizzlies ↗ | $2.2K |
| Oct 12 | BUY Yes
@ 43¢
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-11? |
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-10-11? | $5.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY No
@ 50¢
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-10-09? |
Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-10-09? | $2.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.