Busy-Pavilion
Skill vs luck
Busy-Pavilion on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 44%–100%) · profit +$16K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Busy-Pavilion: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 2, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x3c66ff62e1b872b1381678c9855bb5b73efc0491. Data CC BY 4.0.
Busy-Pavilion: +$16K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 44%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 18 – Nov 2
- +$16K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | BUY Oilers
@ 47¢
Oilers vs. Rangers |
Oilers vs. Rangers | $2.5K |
| Oct 31 | BUY Oilers @ 51¢ | Oilers vs. Islanders ↗ | $5.3K |
| Oct 21 | BUY Yes @ 79¢ | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? ↗ | $15K |
| Oct 20 | BUY Oilers
@ 56¢
Wild vs. Oilers |
Wild vs. Oilers | $9.7K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.