Complete-Referendum
0x3c593aeb73ebdadbc9ce76d4264a6a2af4011766
Complete-Referendum: −$5.1K on 6 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 19%–81%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$5.1K
return −44.1%
Settled bets
6
$12K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 19%–81%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$1.9K
- Sep 3 – Sep 18
- +$1.4K
- Sep 18 – Oct 2
- −$4.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.7%
(2,007 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | BUY No @ 81¢ | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Yes @ 20¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 8 | SELL Yes @ 20¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Yes @ 65¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $4.3K |
| Sep 25 | BUY No
@ 37¢
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? |
Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? | $4.2K |
| Sep 20 | SELL Yes @ 77¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? ↗ | $1.2K |
| Sep 19 | BUY No @ 61¢ | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No @ 36¢ | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? ↗ | $4.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.