Capital-Bijou

0x3a014247fddae4ed22efebf940785900c81fc89e

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Capital-Bijou: +$5.2K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 86% (95% range 65%–95%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$5.2K
return +15.3%
Settled bets
21
$34K staked
Won
85.7%
95% range 65%–95%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$321
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$480
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$4.4K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY PARIVISION @ 99.6¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs $2.0K
Oct 9 BUY Team Spirit @ 92¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner $1.8K
Oct 8 BUY 1win @ 56¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner $1.1K
Oct 3 BUY LGD Gaming @ 87¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier $1.7K
Oct 1 BUY Aurora @ 64¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group D $1.3K
Oct 1 BUY Aurora @ 80¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner $1.6K
Sep 27 BUY Natus Vincere @ 54¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs $1.1K
Sep 26 BUY Team Yandex @ 79¢
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner $2.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed