Offbeat-Beginner-Cotton
Skill vs luck
Offbeat-Beginner-Cotton on Polymarket: 11 settled bets · won 18% (95% range 5%–48%) · profit −$11K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +2.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 31, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Offbeat-Beginner-Cotton: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 31, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x38fb603d036057bf4896ce298e1b341ea975d07c. Data CC BY 4.0.
Offbeat-Beginner-Cotton: −$11K on 11 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 18% (95% range 5%–48%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 5 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- −$11K
- Oct 2 – Oct 16
- +$604
- Oct 16 – Oct 31
- −$256
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | SELL No
@ 39¢
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-10-30? |
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-10-30? | $3.7K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Elizara Yaneva @ 50¢ | Courmayeur: Elsa Jacquemot vs Elizara Yaneva ↗ | $2.3K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Elizara Yaneva @ 86¢ | Courmayeur: Elsa Jacquemot vs Elizara Yaneva ↗ | $4.0K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Holger Rune @ 32¢ | Swiss Indoors Basel: Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot ↗ | $1.0K |
| Oct 30 | SELL Nemiga @ 71¢ | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner ↗ | $3.0K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Over
@ 99.9¢
FC Utrecht vs. Willem II Tilburg: O/U 3.5 |
FC Utrecht vs. Willem II Tilburg: O/U 3.5 | $1.4K |
| Oct 11 | SELL Over
@ 54¢
Telstar 1963 vs. ADO Den Haag: O/U 5.5 |
Telstar 1963 vs. ADO Den Haag: O/U 5.5 | $1.6K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Yes
@ 31¢
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-11? |
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-11? | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.