Polite-Duel
0x38181f43e5802391522583a82d05893df3039797
Polite-Duel: −$42K on 58 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 48% (95% range 36%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$42K
return −24.7%
Settled bets
58
$169K staked
Won
48.3%
95% range 36%–61%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 53 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$15K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$24K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$2.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | BUY RED Canids
@ 28¢
LoL: FlyQuest vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: FlyQuest vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner | $1.7K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Shopify Rebellion
@ 70¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Team Falcons
@ 70¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.2K |
| Oct 6 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 52¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | $3.3K |
| Oct 6 | BUY LGD Gaming
@ 68¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage |
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage | $5.0K |
| Oct 5 | BUY Team Vitality
@ 75¢
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: GAM Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 4 | BUY LYON
@ 59¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 4 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 4 Winner | $3.0K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Team Liquid
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner | $5.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.