Unfortunate-Harvest
0x352dbb3398ec4a9d78ffc82d9a8f8732b836cb9e
Unfortunate-Harvest: −$11K on 86 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 84% (95% range 75%–90%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$11K
return −7.1%
Settled bets
86
$151K staked
Won
83.7%
95% range 75%–90%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 74 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$4.9K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.7K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$3.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Over
@ 97¢
Orlando City SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 0.5 |
Orlando City SC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 0.5 | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Under
@ 96¢
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 4.5 |
Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 4.5 | $1.7K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 93¢
Will Slovenia win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Slovenia win on 2026-10-03? | $1.6K |
| Oct 3 | BUY No
@ 91¢
Will Albania win on 2026-10-03? |
Will Albania win on 2026-10-03? | $1.5K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Belgium
@ 98¢
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) |
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) | $1.7K |
| Oct 2 | BUY Yes
@ 93¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2? |
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2? | $4.2K |
| Oct 2 | BUY No
@ 99¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on October 1? |
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on October 1? | $2.4K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 95¢
Will Serbia win on 2026-10-01? |
Will Serbia win on 2026-10-01? | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.