Probable-Motion-Millstone
Skill vs luck
Probable-Motion-Millstone on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 67% (95% range 21%–94%) · profit −$2.3K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Probable-Motion-Millstone: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x34d39f2c90817f90ae4b7a253019c9464e7442e0. Data CC BY 4.0.
Probable-Motion-Millstone: −$2.3K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 67% (95% range 21%–94%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 15 – Oct 29
- −$2.3K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | BUY Heat @ 84¢ | Heat vs. Hawks ↗ | $10K |
| Oct 27 | BUY Yes
@ 90¢
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-27? |
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-27? | $3.7K |
| Oct 26 | BUY Olympique Lyonnais
@ 93¢
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) |
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) | $4.7K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.