Worse-Exaggeration

0x34a684271e84d7ceee87dea96423ab60f0a322d2

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Worse-Exaggeration: +$596 on 8 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 22%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
+$596
return +5.3%
Settled bets
8
$11K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 22%–79%
Mostly bets on
sports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$596
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Aug 24 SELL Atlanta Braves @ 99¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers $5.6K
Aug 23 SELL Under @ 99.9¢
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 3.5
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 3.5 $5.2K
Aug 23 SELL Cowboys @ 94¢
Cowboys vs. Cardinals
Cowboys vs. Cardinals $4.4K
Aug 23 BUY Cowboys @ 83¢
Cowboys vs. Cardinals
Cowboys vs. Cardinals $3.9K
Aug 23 BUY Cleveland Guardians @ 82¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies
Cleveland Guardians vs. Colorado Rockies $3.2K
Aug 23 BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 89¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles $2.8K
Aug 23 SELL Pittsburgh Pirates @ 39¢
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers $1.4K
Aug 20 SELL St. Louis Cardinals @ 99.9¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds $1.1K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed