Worst-Analogue
0x3471a897e56a8d3621ca79af87dae4325977f17e
Worst-Analogue: −$38K on 366 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 56% (95% range 51%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$38K
return −3.9%
Settled bets
366
$971K staked
Won
55.7%
95% range 51%–61%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 366 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$42K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$13K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$9.3K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY MOUZ
@ 46¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Aurora
@ 61¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.8K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Vitality
@ 30¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Vitality
@ 69¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Vitality
@ 69¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 10 | BUY LOUD
@ 62¢
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | BUY LOUD
@ 73¢
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: NRG vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 57¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner | $1.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.