Simplistic-Doorknob
0x32d6f07f18855cfe2d8c2492d411ee02372c04f9
Simplistic-Doorknob: −$4.5K on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 50% (95% range 10%–91%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Profit
−$4.5K
return −31.8%
Settled bets
2
$14K staked
Won
50.0%
95% range 10%–91%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$4.5K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17 | SELL No
@ 79¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? |
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | $8.7K |
| Sep 16 | BUY No
@ 76¢
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? |
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | $8.4K |
| Sep 16 | SELL No
@ 82¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | $8.4K |
| Sep 14 | BUY Yes
@ 75¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026? |
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026? | $7.0K |
| Sep 10 | BUY No
@ 86¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | $7.1K |
| Sep 9 | BUY No
@ 74¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? |
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | $7.2K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.