Bouncy-Twister
Skill vs luck
Bouncy-Twister on Polymarket: 3 settled bets · won 33% (95% range 6%–79%) · profit −$5.2K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −11.1% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Bouncy-Twister: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 28, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x31f60af21eabb2f85e94bd79f94f189ac4ff80e0. Data CC BY 4.0.
Bouncy-Twister: −$5.2K on 3 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 33% (95% range 6%–79%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Oct 10 – Oct 28
- −$5.2K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 81¢ | Erste Bank Open: Karen Khachanov vs Carlos Alcaraz ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 25 | BUY Yes @ 81¢ | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? ↗ | $2.9K |
| Oct 24 | BUY No
@ 80¢
Will Elche CF win on 2026-10-24? |
Will Elche CF win on 2026-10-24? | $2.7K |
All 3 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.
The bigger picture: Does copying Polymarket whales pay? · Do Polymarket whales make money?