Treasured-Parchment
0x30c7ac0158499ddc6761047f7f69bcf7d036ac3b
Treasured-Parchment: +$44K on 74 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 62% (95% range 51%–72%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$44K
return +9.4%
Settled bets
74
$463K staked
Won
62.2%
95% range 51%–72%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 74 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$2.1K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$60K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$18K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
In the live feed
BUY
$15K
bought Imperial
@ 50¢ → now 51¢ (+$150)
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Vitality
@ 55¢
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) |
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) | $8.3K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Metizport
@ 32¢
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Metizport (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Metizport (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $1.5K |
| Oct 6 | BUY LOUD
@ 46¢
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs |
Valorant: Paper Rex vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 5 | BUY M80
@ 51¢
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $13K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Natus Vincere
@ 69¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.1K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Eternal Fire
@ 36¢
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Eternal Fire
@ 55¢
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs | $2.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY BBL
@ 30¢
Counter-Strike: NIP vs BBL (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: NIP vs BBL (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs | $1.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.