Crowded-Bonding
0x2eeaf2013ffb52a3a3d62cf11ed5abb6ae791a4c
Crowded-Bonding: +$42K on 40 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 73% (95% range 57%–84%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$42K
return +51.5%
Settled bets
40
$81K staked
Won
72.5%
95% range 57%–84%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 16 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$42K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 | BUY DYNASTY
@ 50¢
Dota 2: DYNASTY vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: DYNASTY vs Team Synapse - Game 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Aug 25 | BUY RE.Arise
@ 78¢
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B |
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group B | $1.8K |
| Aug 24 | SELL Fnatic
@ 64¢
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner | $1.3K |
| Aug 23 | BUY TEAM VISION
@ 85¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 4 Winner | $2.0K |
| Aug 23 | BUY Team Spirit
@ 99¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 3 Winner | $9.9K |
| Aug 23 | BUY TEAM VISION
@ 71¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $2.0K |
| Aug 23 | BUY TEAM VISION
@ 71¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $2.0K |
| Aug 23 | SELL Team Spirit
@ 52¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.