Peaceful-Illusion
Skill vs luck
Peaceful-Illusion on Polymarket: 2 settled bets · won 100% (95% range 34%–100%) · profit +$682. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +3.8% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 1, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Peaceful-Illusion: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 1, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x2e4d05beafd81a6e85bc0c6a94820d61ef34f703. Data CC BY 4.0.
Peaceful-Illusion: +$682 on 2 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 34%–100%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 2 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$592
- Oct 17 – Nov 1
- +$90
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | BUY No @ 99.1¢ | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October? ↗ | $9.9K |
| Oct 30 | BUY Yes @ 19¢ | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 11 | BUY Yes @ 18¢ | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Sep 2 | BUY No
@ 67¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? |
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | $1.2K |
All 4 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.