Faint-Landing

0x2e31da14fb1ee55a1de99b1caebcbf7ed895d5fd

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Faint-Landing: −$6.9K on 37 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 84% (95% range 69%–92%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
−$6.9K
return −8.2%
Settled bets
37
$84K staked
Won
83.8%
95% range 69%–92%
Mostly bets on
crypto

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 33 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
+$67
Sep 6 – Sep 23
−$7.0K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 19 BUY No @ 99.6¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 20?
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 20? $1.0K
Sep 19 BUY No @ 99.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 20?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 20? $4.0K
Sep 17 BUY Yes @ 99.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18? $1.8K
Sep 17 BUY Yes @ 99.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18? $1.7K
Sep 17 BUY Yes @ 99.5¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 18?
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 18? $1.3K
Sep 17 BUY Yes @ 99.7¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 18?
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 18? $3.7K
Sep 16 BUY No @ 99.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 17?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 17? $3.6K
Sep 16 BUY Yes @ 99.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 17?
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 17? $3.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed