Tedious-Pagan
0x2d395d11014415644fe9a8599fe050e7f3a06053
Tedious-Pagan: −$46K on 346 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 57% (95% range 52%–62%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$46K
return −4.9%
Settled bets
346
$943K staked
Won
57.2%
95% range 52%–62%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 346 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$37K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$4.4K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$5.2K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Vitality
@ 73¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | $2.9K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Aurora
@ 62¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Vitality
@ 28¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner |
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Vitality
@ 69¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Vitality
@ 69¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner |
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 62¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $1.2K |
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 57¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 65¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $1.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.