Educated-Shoat

0x2cc8cc54f50dbb45fe346612821ca93b6e93262b

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Educated-Shoat: +$14K on 39 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 100% (95% range 91%–100%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$14K
return +2.8%
Settled bets
39
$488K staked
Won
100.0%
95% range 91%–100%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 39 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$2.0K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$5.6K
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$6.2K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 9 BUY Up @ 99.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9?
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 9? $4.1K
Oct 4 BUY Yes @ 98¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-10-04?
Will Senegal win on 2026-10-04? $5.0K
Oct 4 BUY Yes @ 86¢
Will England win on 2026-10-06?
Will England win on 2026-10-06? $7.4K
Oct 4 BUY Yes @ 85¢
Will England win on 2026-10-06?
Will England win on 2026-10-06? $1.0K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 98¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03? $1.2K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 92¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03? $2.2K
Oct 3 BUY Yes @ 93¢
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?
Will Spain win on 2026-10-03? $47K
Oct 3 BUY No @ 98¢
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03?
Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03? $11K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed