Previous-Sin
0x2c8019974e5a541c2101191cd108d4abaca808ff
Previous-Sin: −$21K on 20 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 20% (95% range 8%–42%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$21K
return −47.3%
Settled bets
20
$44K staked
Won
20.0%
95% range 8%–42%
Mostly bets on
sports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- −$7.7K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- +$3.9K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$17K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5 | BUY Saints
@ 45¢
Spread: Saints (-2.5) |
Spread: Saints (-2.5) | $5.5K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Texans
@ 31¢
Spread: Texans (-7.5) |
Spread: Texans (-7.5) | $2.2K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Alden Coria
@ 43¢
UFC 332: Alden Coria vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Prelims) |
UFC 332: Alden Coria vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Prelims) | $3.8K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Florida
@ 41¢
Spread: Florida (-7.5) |
Spread: Florida (-7.5) | $1.3K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Atlanta Braves
@ 33¢
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers |
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | $1.4K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
@ 28¢
UFC Fight Night: Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli (Bantamweight, Main Card) |
UFC Fight Night: Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu vs. Mehemmedeli Osmanli (Bantamweight, Main Card) | $2.9K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Over
@ 47¢
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5 |
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5 | $1.9K |
| Sep 20 | BUY Patricio Pitbull
@ 31¢
UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card) |
UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card) | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.