Substantial-Timber
0x2bf0a88661bd539f937dba47eb36e288b577728f
Substantial-Timber: −$15K on 38 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 29% (95% range 17%–45%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$15K
return −27.4%
Settled bets
38
$56K staked
Won
28.9%
95% range 17%–45%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 19 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$999
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$8.7K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- −$7.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | SELL Buccaneers
@ 96¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $2.6K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Cowboys
@ 14¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $2.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Cowboys
@ 15¢
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys |
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | $2.2K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Cleveland Guardians
@ 73¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | $2.3K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Cleveland Guardians
@ 37¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | $1.2K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Chicago White Sox
@ 68¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox |
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | $1.2K |
| Oct 4 | BUY San Diego Padres
@ 13¢
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers |
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers | $1.4K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Florida
@ 29¢
Florida vs. Missouri |
Florida vs. Missouri | $3.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.