Frequent-Parameter
0x2a35f54dc4bbca26704ea6ca5df8820075cb9015
Frequent-Parameter: −$14K on 64 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 45% (95% range 34%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$14K
return −12.2%
Settled bets
64
$113K staked
Won
45.3%
95% range 34%–57%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 60 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$1.5K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$5.1K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$17K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY Sangal
@ 70¢
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs | $1.5K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Cupid Esports
@ 67¢
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs |
LoL: Maryville University vs Cupid Esports (BO5) - LCS Promotion Playoffs | $1.1K |
| Oct 6 | SELL Galions
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Galions vs BIG - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Galions vs BIG - Game 3 Winner | $1.7K |
| Oct 6 | BUY Galions
@ 79¢
LoL: Galions vs BIG - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Galions vs BIG - Game 3 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 4 | BUY Team Liquid
@ 51¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 3 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Team Liquid
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 2 Winner | $3.5K |
| Oct 4 | SELL Team Liquid
@ 99.9¢
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner |
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON - Game 1 Winner | $1.7K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Cloud9
@ 62¢
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner |
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner | $2.0K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.