Rash-Barometer
0x29b52d98ac9ef9414b04164246c95bc63d74cc6c
Rash-Barometer: −$22K on 341 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 52% (95% range 46%–57%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$22K
return −0.8%
Settled bets
341
$2.59M staked
Won
51.6%
95% range 46%–57%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 341 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$154K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$119K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$57K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | BUY K27
@ 68¢
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Metizport (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Metizport (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $1.2K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FURIA
@ 72¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $2.3K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FURIA
@ 72¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $2.4K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Alter Ego
@ 87¢
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Legion (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #3 Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs Legion (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia-Pacific Cup #3 Playoffs | $2.4K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Spirit
@ 87¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Phantom
@ 37¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $2.0K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Spirit
@ 87¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage |
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | $1.6K |
| Oct 7 | BUY Phantom
@ 36¢
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs |
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | $2.7K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.