Descriptive-Shoehorn
0x29b15e8557b2cb5b5ba1ec8b5cbba479ee26f737
Descriptive-Shoehorn: −$19K on 34 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 44% (95% range 29%–61%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$19K
return −7.4%
Settled bets
34
$255K staked
Won
44.1%
95% range 29%–61%
Mostly bets on
other
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 33 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$40K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- +$39K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- −$17K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 | BUY Türkiye
@ 61¢
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) |
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) | $2.7K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Serbia
@ 60¢
Spread: Germany (-2.5) |
Spread: Germany (-2.5) | $1.5K |
| Sep 30 | BUY Maple Leafs
@ 54¢
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs |
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs | $4.6K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Croatia
@ 63¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5) |
Spread: Spain (-2.5) | $2.0K |
| Sep 29 | BUY Croatia
@ 63¢
Spread: Spain (-2.5) |
Spread: Spain (-2.5) | $7.3K |
| Sep 27 | BUY Yes
@ 35¢
Will Israel win on 2026-09-27? |
Will Israel win on 2026-09-27? | $1.5K |
| Sep 26 | BUY Orlando City SC
@ 59¢
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5) |
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5) | $9.1K |
| Sep 24 | BUY Denmark
@ 67¢
Spread: Norway (-1.5) |
Spread: Norway (-1.5) | $4.5K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.