False-Barbecue
0x2931cf68a383c734a286890bdcc86ac224347b81
False-Barbecue: +$20K on 48 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 54% (95% range 40%–67%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
+$20K
return +28.8%
Settled bets
48
$70K staked
Won
54.2%
95% range 40%–67%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 28 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by period
- Aug 20 – Sep 6
- +$13K
- Sep 6 – Sep 23
- −$2.1K
- Sep 23 – Oct 11
- +$9.6K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2%
(2,094 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 49¢
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner | $2.5K |
| Oct 9 | SELL 1win
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $7.7K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 70¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | BUY PARIVISION
@ 76¢
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Aurora
@ 20¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $1.0K |
| Oct 9 | SELL Aurora
@ 20¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner | $1.4K |
| Oct 8 | BUY Team Yandex
@ 51¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs | $2.0K |
| Oct 8 | SELL PARIVISION
@ 99.9¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner |
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner | $7.2K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.