Deserted-Workshop
0x282f81747948a90105d944b5a5a2043825d67c4e
Deserted-Workshop: −$13K on 21 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 38% (95% range 21%–59%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.
Profit
−$13K
return −22.7%
Settled bets
21
$56K staked
Won
38.1%
95% range 21%–59%
Mostly bets on
esports
Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 21 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
Profit by 2 weeks
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- −$13K
- Sep 4 – Sep 20
- −$2.8K
- Sep 20 – Oct 5
- +$3.6K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following
weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0%
(2,053 positions).
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | BUY SV Werder Bremen
@ 52¢
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) |
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Oct 9 | BUY Lakers
@ 87¢
Kings vs. Lakers |
Kings vs. Lakers | $1.1K |
| Oct 7 | BUY FlyQuest
@ 41¢
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs GAM Esports (+1.5) |
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs GAM Esports (+1.5) | $5.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY No
@ 31¢
Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? |
Will Norway win on 2026-10-01? | $1.6K |
| Sep 15 | BUY Ipswich Town FC
@ 48¢
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) |
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) | $1.1K |
| Sep 14 | BUY No
@ 40¢
Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-09-14? |
Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-09-14? | $1.2K |
| Sep 13 | BUY No
@ 32¢
Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-13? |
Will Malmo FF win on 2026-09-13? | $1.1K |
| Sep 13 | BUY No
@ 56¢
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-09-13? |
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-09-13? | $2.3K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.