Sniveling-Exam

0x27d2812fa0d04ca1b874cffedff7a15beb4ab0f8

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Sniveling-Exam: +$5.6K on 17 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 53% (95% range 31%–74%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$5.6K
return +33.5%
Settled bets
17
$17K staked
Won
52.9%
95% range 31%–74%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 10 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by 2 weeks
Aug 20 – Sep 4
+$3.4K
Sep 4 – Sep 20
+$546
Sep 20 – Oct 5
+$1.7K
Settled profit in each two-week period since Aug 20. A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −7.0% (2,053 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 4 SELL Baylor @ 99.9¢
Baylor vs. Arizona State
Baylor vs. Arizona State $8.0K
Oct 2 BUY Wisconsin @ 77¢
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Michigan State vs. Wisconsin $4.4K
Sep 30 BUY Alex de Minaur @ 79¢
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone
China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Mariano Navone $1.3K
Sep 20 BUY @ 25¢
Browns vs. Buccaneers AND UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) AND Bengals vs. Texans AND Colts vs. Chiefs
Browns vs. Buccaneers AND UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) AND Bengals vs. Texans AND Colts vs. Chiefs $1.4K
Sep 20 BUY LSU @ 58¢
LSU vs. Ole Miss
LSU vs. Ole Miss $2.5K
Sep 16 BUY No @ 77¢
Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw?
Will Ararat-Armenia FA vs. AC Sparta Praha end in a draw? $1.2K
Sep 14 BUY Chiefs @ 55¢
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Broncos vs. Chiefs $1.5K
Sep 13 BUY Texas @ 47¢
Ohio State vs. Texas
Ohio State vs. Texas $1.0K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the weekly update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · weekly run 1791223421, computed 2026-10-05 18:03 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791223421 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed