Spiffy-Revenue

0x2759769cd371bee44ec5bfc5e72c7f1f092b2b38

Polymarket

Can't tell from luck Check it on Polymarket ↗

Spiffy-Revenue: +$37K on 15 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 20%–64%). Skill or luck: indistinguishable from luck.

Profit
+$37K
return +18.9%
Settled bets
15
$195K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 20%–64%
Mostly bets on
other

Skill or luck? Indistinguishable from luck. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 15 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$2.1K
Sep 6 – Sep 23
+$76K
Sep 23 – Oct 11
−$37K
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

In the live feed

BUY $9.3K
bought 49ers @ 58¢ → now 32¢ (−$4.2K)
BUY $29K
bought Lions @ 79¢ → now 99.5¢ (+$7.4K)

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Oct 10 BUY No @ 38¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10?
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-10? $1.4K
Oct 9 BUY Team Falcons @ 42¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $7.5K
Oct 9 BUY MOUZ @ 59¢
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs $18K
Oct 9 BUY No @ 28¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10?
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-10? $3.0K
Oct 7 BUY 100 Thieves @ 66¢
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs $22K
Oct 7 BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 59¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves $21K
Oct 6 BUY BetBoom Team @ 57¢
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
Counter-Strike: 9z vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage $30K
Sep 20 BUY Joshua Van @ 59¢
UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)
UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) $9.9K

Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed