Probable-Semicircle
Skill vs luck
Probable-Semicircle on Polymarket: 4 settled bets · won 75% (95% range 30%–95%) · profit +$3.8K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned +1.3% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Oct 29, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Probable-Semicircle: Polymarket record”, as of Oct 29, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x25867077c891354137bbaf7fde12eec6949cc893. Data CC BY 4.0.
Probable-Semicircle: +$3.8K on 4 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 75% (95% range 30%–95%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 3
- +$1.2K
- Oct 1 – Oct 15
- +$2.8K
- Oct 15 – Oct 29
- −$176
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | BUY Yes @ 37¢ | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Oct 23 | BUY Golden Knights
@ 53¢
Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets |
Golden Knights vs. Blue Jackets | $1.2K |
| Oct 22 | BUY Canadiens
@ 60¢
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks |
Canadiens vs. Blackhawks | $1.5K |
| Oct 22 | BUY No @ 33¢ | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? ↗ | $1.8K |
| Oct 3 | BUY Lightning
@ 60¢
Capitals vs. Lightning |
Capitals vs. Lightning | $4.2K |
| Sep 29 | BUY No @ 62¢ | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? ↗ | $3.6K |
All 6 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.