Flippant-Nougat

0x25427f1be766b716f3763105ba6ed939f6fa7821

Polymarket

Too few bets Check it on Polymarket ↗

Flippant-Nougat: −$730 on 5 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 40% (95% range 12%–77%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.

Profit
−$730
return −15.5%
Settled bets
5
$4.7K staked
Won
40.0%
95% range 12%–77%
Mostly bets on
esports

Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 3 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.

Profit by period
Aug 20 – Sep 6
−$730
Settled profit in each period since Aug 20 (14 days or a little longer; hover a bar for its dates). A dashed slot had no settled bets.
Thinking of copying this wallet? When we copied the top 20% of Polymarket whales into the following weeks, at prices a follower could actually get, copiers made −9.2% (2,094 positions).

Latest captured bets

WhenBetMarketSize
Sep 2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 87¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Playoffs $2.0K
Sep 2 BUY Max Alcala Gurri @ 73¢
Porto: Facundo Mena vs Max Alcala Gurri
Porto: Facundo Mena vs Max Alcala Gurri $1.2K
Sep 2 BUY Alexander Zverev @ 90¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo Sonego $1.5K
Sep 1 SELL Calvin Hemery @ 99.9¢
Plovdiv 3: Eric Vanshelboim vs Calvin Hemery
Plovdiv 3: Eric Vanshelboim vs Calvin Hemery $1.1K
Sep 1 SELL Gen.G @ 99.9¢
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner $1.2K

All 5 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.

About this data · run 1791710133, computed 2026-10-11 09:15 UTC
Source: hopium_compute run 1791710133 (PG metrics_*)
  • Poly: only >=$1k trades captured -> per-wallet PnL partial
  • Limitless: price/contracts only since 2026-09-05
  • latest window has the most unresolved markets
  • Limitless wash/value-transfer trades excluded (see wash); Poly off-book is report-only
  • fair value covers Limitless crypto markets only (Binance); stocks have no reference feed