Fake-Polyester
Skill vs luck
Fake-Polyester on Polymarket: 7 settled bets · won 43% (95% range 16%–75%) · profit −$1.0K. Skill vs luck: too few settled bets to tell. Copying the top 20% of Polymarket whales returned −0.2% on later weeks (all top whales, not this one). As of Nov 4, 2026.
Cite: Hopium Games, “Fake-Polyester: Polymarket record”, as of Nov 4, 2026, https://hopium.games/wallet/0x25257a6a89dba93dd0c536b6279365632a4eb919. Data CC BY 4.0.
Fake-Polyester: −$1.0K on 7 settled Polymarket bets since Aug 20, won 43% (95% range 16%–75%). Skill or luck: too few bets to judge.
Skill or luck? Too few bets to judge. We compare how often its bets won with the odds it paid for them, over 4 bets held to the end. Profit counts its $1,000+ bets since Aug 20, marked against how each market resolved.
- Aug 20 – Sep 4
- +$2.9K
- Sep 4 – Sep 19
- +$138
- Sep 19 – Oct 4
- −$2.7K
- Oct 4 – Oct 20
- −$1.5K
Latest captured bets
| When | Bet | Market | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | SELL Yes @ 66¢ | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? ↗ | $1.4K |
| Oct 19 | BUY Yes
@ 58¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? |
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? | $1.5K |
| Oct 5 | BUY No
@ 69¢
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? |
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | $3.0K |
| Oct 1 | BUY Yes @ 53¢ | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? ↗ | $1.7K |
| Oct 1 | SELL No
@ 66¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? |
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | $2.7K |
| Sep 30 | BUY No
@ 59¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? |
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15? | $4.7K |
| Sep 24 | SELL Yes @ 22¢ | Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? ↗ | $1.9K |
| Sep 23 | BUY Yes
@ 80¢
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30? |
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30? | $1.4K |
Its last 8 captured bets of $1,000+ in the last 60 days, as of the last daily update. Individual fills, not combined.